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Post by Sara Ganetis on Sept 30, 2013 22:52:00 GMT
I am so proud of myself that it is before 23Z and I actually remembered to submit a forecast for the WxChallenge! KHOU should prove to be an interesting city to start with. I definitely struggle with forecasting precip. amounts so given the slight forcing early this week by that weak upper-level low but mostly diurnal convection means I'm likely going to tank! I wrote up a quick blog post on this forecast city found here if anyone is interested. Anyone else participating in the WxChallenge? |
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Post by vanna on Oct 2, 2013 15:41:43 GMT
Very nice blog Sara! I am doing WxChallenge, as well, but I am struggling to separate my experiences of Houston weather (always too hot and too still) from the current weather. Hopefully by the end of next week I can stop over-predicting highs and under-predicting winds!
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Post by Keith Sherburn on Oct 2, 2013 17:51:29 GMT
These coastal cities are always the toughest in terms of precipitation, mainly because (as you said) the convection is weakly forced and widely scattered. If the ASOS gets hit, they're getting drenched; if it doesn't and you put precip in, you're hosed. Unfortunately, since the temperature spread is also generally minimal in these locations, your success ultimately determines on microscale influences that may or may not be adequately modeled (unlikely) or even observable (possibly).
Basically, coastal cities are my least favorite to forecast. If you struggle in a coastal city, it's not because you're a bad forecaster; there's a considerable influence from good or bad fortune.
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Post by Derek Mallia on Oct 3, 2013 0:55:21 GMT
Yea about that 1 inch of rain... oops! In hindsight my goose egg was a bad idea. Then again I'm rolling the dice again tomorrow lol.
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Post by Derek Mallia on Oct 3, 2013 20:32:05 GMT
%$&#$%&#@ I'm over Houston. Of course it would get hit by the most random shower today.
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Post by vanna on Oct 4, 2013 15:01:53 GMT
I share your frustration and I'm admitting my defeat by Houston.
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Post by Derek Mallia on Oct 4, 2013 19:49:17 GMT
Keeping my fingers crossed but no rain yet! And yes I put out another 0 this time out of spite  |
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Post by kgriffin on Oct 5, 2013 18:04:09 GMT
Think I did quite well with my guidance forecast on Day 2...it was totally intentional, I swear! (I'm gdinfo this year, by the way)
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Post by Derek Mallia on Oct 7, 2013 17:32:12 GMT
I'm PWNIES, couldn't think of anything more clever. But yeah, I'm guilty of missing one forecasts (the first day).
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Post by vanna on Oct 10, 2013 2:42:58 GMT
I'm KSQU12 (KSQU was my call sign for our Synoptic forecasting competitions as USA). I missed a forecast Monday, but I always keep my forecasts past Day 1 on guidance, so the GFS got me a pretty good score for that day.
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